In print
Beyond Malthus: Sixteen Dimensions of the Population Problem
by Lester R Brown, Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil (Worldwatch Paper 143) 1998
published by Worldwatch Institute, 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington DC 20036-1904
92pp, price US$5.00, ISBN 1-878071-45-9
How fares the future?
Many countries that have experienced rapid population growth for several decades are finding it impossible to cope with major threats such as disease (AIDS) or water shortage, according to the new Worldwatch Institute publication "Beyond Malthus: Sixteen dimensions of the population problem". Problems routinely managed in industrial countries are becoming full-scale humanitarian crises in many developing ones and in the absence of a concerted effort by governments and the international community to quickly implement strategies for smaller families, events could spiral out of control. In many countries this could lead to political instability and economic decline.
This new Worldwatch Paper marks the bicentennial of
Thomas Malthus' essay on the tendency for population to grow more rapidly than food supply.
Although many people consider that Malthus' fears of famine have been exaggerated or proved
unfounded, history may prove them merely delayed. While in 32 countries, containing 14 percent of
world population, population growth has stopped, Ethiopia's population of 62 million is projected
to more than triple to 213 million by 2050; Pakistan will grow from 148 to 357 million; and Nigeria
will likely increase from its current 122 million to 339 million. With these growth rates Pakistan
will overtake the United States in population before 2050 and by that date Nigeria's population
will exceed that in all of Africa in 1950.
These trends will make unprecedented demands on food supply and it is unlikely that food demand can be met solely on the basis of science and improved agricultural technology. The depletion of soil fertility in many croplands and pastures is concern enough but even more alarming is the reducing availability of water. The authors of this report (Lester Brown, President of the Worldwatch Institute, Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil) describe how food supplies in many countries are jeopardised by the depletion of aquifers. They quote a forthcoming study by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), based in Sri Lanka, which reports that in India, a country heavily dependent on irrigation, recent growth in food production (and consequently of population) have been based partly on the unsustainable use of water. Nationwide, withdrawals of water in India are at least double the rate of recharge and water tables are falling by 1 to 3 metres per year. IWMI estimates that as India's aquifers are depleted, its grain production could fall by as much as one-fifth. In a country where population is growing by 18 million a year such a considerable reduction in food output could create chaos.
International conflict could develop rapidly over shared water sources and nowhere more so than among the three principal countries of the Nile valley - Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. Egypt's farmers are totally dependent on Nile water and Egypt has by far the largest share of it. With its current population due to grow to 115 million by 2050, the demand for agricultural output will almost double. Yet Sudan's population is also set to double to 60 million in the same period and Ethiopia's to triple. Whichever country takes more from this finite source will do so at the expense of others. (See New Agriculturist 3)
Crop and pasture lands have ever greater demands to meet and the Worldwatch Institute instances two countries that are unlikely to be able to feed future populations: Nigeria and Pakistan. The projected growth of population in Nigeria will reduce the cropland available per person from the currently inadequate 0.15 hectares to 0.05, while in Pakistan the cropland available per person will shrink from 0.08 to 0.03 hectares per person.
Clearly the challenge facing everyone involved in agriculture is enormous but the challenge facing politicians may well be greater, and little can be achieved without political vision, will and leadership. They must grapple with all sixteen of the dimensions of the population problem within the title and scope of this Worldwatch Paper. The list is too long to itemise here but includes employment, education, health and housing. What is significant to any reader, whether a policy-maker scientist, academic or practical agronomist, is that the two dimensions given priority are grain production and fresh water.
Development as process: concepts and methods for working with complexity
edited by David Mosse, John Farrington and Alan Rew. 1998
published by Routledge, 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE, UK
dstevens@routledge.com
202pp, price £45.00, HBK, ISBN 0 415 18605 6
The idea of producing a book on process approaches
was born in the aftermath of an informal workshop jointly organized by the Overseas Development
Institute (ODI) of the UK and the Centre for Development Studies in 1995.
Continuing interaction with the workshop participants and others, together with the editors' long-term involvement in the study and application of process approaches, showed that there was a need for a volume providing not only practical examples of process approaches but locating them within a conceptual framework. This book aims to meet that need.
The book opens with two introductory chapters: the first a conceptual chapter followed by one which give an overview of the case study material presented in subsequent chapters. Chapters 3 and 4 provided examples from India and Bangladesh of process approaches to information and monitoring in developments projects. Chapters 6-8 set out process experiences in the context of multi-agency collaboration in the same two countries. Chapter 5 explains the expectation and practice of the UK Department for International Development in relation to monitoring 'process projects'. The final chapter takes examples from Indian forestry and Russian land privatisation and examines how process approaches can influence policy reform.
Extension of
livestock production messages: guidelines for policy implementation in developing countries
by John Morton and Richard Matthewman
copies from NRI Catalogue Services, CAB International, Wallingford, Oxon OX10 8DE, UK order no ECN9
nri@cabi.org
18pp, price £7.50, PBK, ISBN 0 859954 484 2
The importance of conveying information on livestock production to farmers and others in developing countries is increasing. This is because demand for livestock products is growing, because new systems of livestock production are emerging, and because animal health constraints are gradually being overcome despite the fact that, livestock production extension systems have historically been marginal and neglected.
This booklet is based on first-hand research in developing countries, and examines the major types of institutions providing livestock production extension: national extension systems; animal health services; and special projects. It makes concrete recommendations for the planning of new services for crop livestock producers and for special target groups, as well as for the reform of existing institutions.
Investment in fishing vessels has soared until there is now so much over-capacity that
profits have more than halved in the last 25 years. However, as profits turn to losses fishermen
are ever more desperate to catch what they can: sea-going vessels move closer in-shore, use ever
more sophisticated equipment to locate and catch fish and they turn to catching species previously
ignored. Consequently, the marine food chain is disrupted, vast areas of ocean depleted and
artisanal fishermen are denied their livelihood. The forces driving fishermen down the path of
self-destruction are well documented, writes Anne Platt McGinn, they are widespread technological
change, fleet growth and massive government subsidies. Between 22 per cent and 38 per cent of
global fishing revenues come from governments not sale of fish. 
copies from NRI
Catalogue Services, CAB International, Wallingford, Oxon OX10 8DE, UK order no OB76
Bulletin
(68) presents the findings of a field survey of small farmers in the Brong-Ahafo and Volta regions
of Ghana
This book
provides detailed guidelines to those contemplating a seeds-and tools programme. Careful planning,
and thorough consultation with the people involved, are essential in order to avoid the many
potential problems. The book lists the information which must be gathered before deciding to
implement a programme, and then putting it into operation. The various stages are described in
detail, and methods of distribution are compared and evaluated. Technical information on types of
seeds and tools, purchase, transport, and storage are given, and the importance of involving the
recipients, especially women, at every stage, is stressed, as is the need to take a long-term
approach to these interventions.
